The End of Cheap Oil
1. References abound on this. There are still some people who flatly do not believe this is a problem, nor that our lifestyle will change, and drastically. The auto industry, the petroleum industry, the multi-nationals; don't want us to stop spending. The bigger the SUV you buy, the more they make, both on the sale of the vehicle, and on the sale of fuel for the vehicle.
This You Tube video is 34 minutes long, but covers the interlocking significance of this problem quite well.
This You Tube video is 34 minutes long, but covers the interlocking significance of this problem quite well.
2. Carla Emery also has a write-up of this problem. It is available on her website;
http://www.carlaemery.com/fossil-fuel.htm
3. Introducing John Howe. Material from his website; http://solarcarandtractor.com/*/Home.html
'...John Howe is a semi-retired mechanical engineer running his own company, Howe Engineering Co., since 1981. He works 175 acres of mixed farm and wood lot in New England.
'...He became a serious student of energy issues as a farmer and while manufacturing bicycle-powered generators and thresher/winnowers for resale. In recent years his increasing concern about the demise of fossil energy has led to publication of three editions of his energy book with the following subtitles, which read successively:
First edition (2004) . . . . A Plan for Sustainability
Second edition (2005) . . . . The Last Chance for Sustainability
Third edition (2006) . . . . The Last Chance for Survival
The Third Edition of this book is available from Amazon.com.
Contact him for feedback or for more information on solar-powered vehicles and peak oil – howe@megalink.net
In my search for affordable, low impact farm equipment for harvesting grain, I came across John Howe's Website. I bought a thresher from him, and his book, and got to see his solar vehicles. This is his web site;
http://solarcarandtractor.com/*/Home.html
He has a lot of good material, well worth reading. This is his intro;
'...Solarcarandtractor.com is about exploring the promise and limitations of a solar electric future for supplying two huge energy requirements, transportation and agriculture, now provided for almost entirely by oil and all forms of petrofuel derivatives. Energy, in all its forms, supports all life on Earth. Except for nuclear, tidal, and geothermal, our primary energy source has been, and will always be, from incoming solar radiation. Will this be enough to survive the post-fossil fuel age?
'...Three Inescapable Conclusions;
'...1.The only true scalable and energy-positive system that could supersede a fossil-fuel based lifestyle is SOLAR ELECTRIC. This includes the related variation; wind energy. All other “renewable” non-fossil fuel forms are limited, site-specific, compete with food, or are energy negative. Even at its best imaginable scope, a solar electric economy could only constitute a small fraction of our present fossil fuel consumption. Since we now get only two tenths of one percent (!!) from these two forms of clean solar energy, we have a long way to go.
'...2.EXCESS POPULATION, made possible only by the fossil energy age, must and will begin an inexorable decline. We will either take control of harsh realism apriori or the laws of nature and math will cruelly do it for us. Extensive, honest education will be required to publicly pursue this taboo subject.
'...3.The most immediate but unpopular action we should take as a nation is to RATION our diminishing fossil fuel consumption, regardless of its source. This will ensure that all, rich or poor alike, will share in this downsizing of our consumption. Rationing could also buy the time necessary for a controlled transition to solar electric.'
For a 20 page synopsis of his book 'The End of Fossil Energy', use this link;
http://solarcarandtractor.com/*/Books_Videos_files/Survival%20Handbook%20reader%20friendly.pdf
4.
| 2008_06_spady_peakoil.pdf |
Spady's presentation dates from 2008, and discusses the effect of peak oil on health care in the Canadian health care system.
Two other references were found by clicking on a link in this presentation; both are by Sarah K. Odland. Her web page is http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~odland/ .
The first (on the left) is from 2006; a 130 page dissertation, the second (on the right) is from 2007; a 21 page matrix based analysis of likely outcomes of peak oil and the world's attitudes and response to it. What she has to say is very much in line with John Howe in 'The End of Fossil Energy'.
Two other references were found by clicking on a link in this presentation; both are by Sarah K. Odland. Her web page is http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~odland/ .
The first (on the left) is from 2006; a 130 page dissertation, the second (on the right) is from 2007; a 21 page matrix based analysis of likely outcomes of peak oil and the world's attitudes and response to it. What she has to say is very much in line with John Howe in 'The End of Fossil Energy'.
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9/4/12 I was reviewing this topic in my head as I was filtering the morning milk. It has been a rough summer with the garden, the herd, and life in general. As I attempt to raise food to feed us, I wonder why I am doing, what I am doing, and why others are not. The 2012 Presidential election is nearly upon us, the Mayan calendar (and every other doomsayer) reviews the state of the economy, of power politics, of money, and of climate change. They tell us we are in for a huge change.
I cannot disagree. I feel that Sarah Odland's table- (page 8 from the article on the right) is extremely important in this context. After a great amount of debate with Word Starter and Excel, I have been able (sort of) to reproduce it for consideration here. It is titled; ‘The stakes; a matrix of plausible outcomes'
I cannot disagree. I feel that Sarah Odland's table- (page 8 from the article on the right) is extremely important in this context. After a great amount of debate with Word Starter and Excel, I have been able (sort of) to reproduce it for consideration here. It is titled; ‘The stakes; a matrix of plausible outcomes'
You really need to read her publication. A synoptic sketch could be that; change is coming. All the stakeholders (and you are one) know that.
If you examine the matrix, you can easily see that either a given stakeholder may be invested in a specific outcome because it (or the threat of it) is a money- and power-maker; or they are preparing the way they are from fear of that outcome.
Think about the 'military -industrial complex', and for how many generations they have banked (and bankrolled) on the threat of 'nuclear armageddon'. The weapons are in place. The policies are in place. Odland's thesis is that; if you bring about a change abrupt enough, in a chaotic setting, you increase the likelihood of a devastating nuclear event.
Think about the other stakeholders. Who wants the military state? Whose piece of the pie would be enlarged, and whose threatened, by an agrarian social democracy? What are you preparing for? What leverage do you have to influence the outcome?
God help you if you are so corrupt that you do as some advisors suggest- invest on the basis one or more scenarios *in order to make money*; not to help, not to save the people, the country, or the culture- but to make a profit. You will be strategically placed to experience first-hand what it feels like when money- when your ill-gotten gains- are suddenly worthless.
If you examine the matrix, you can easily see that either a given stakeholder may be invested in a specific outcome because it (or the threat of it) is a money- and power-maker; or they are preparing the way they are from fear of that outcome.
Think about the 'military -industrial complex', and for how many generations they have banked (and bankrolled) on the threat of 'nuclear armageddon'. The weapons are in place. The policies are in place. Odland's thesis is that; if you bring about a change abrupt enough, in a chaotic setting, you increase the likelihood of a devastating nuclear event.
Think about the other stakeholders. Who wants the military state? Whose piece of the pie would be enlarged, and whose threatened, by an agrarian social democracy? What are you preparing for? What leverage do you have to influence the outcome?
God help you if you are so corrupt that you do as some advisors suggest- invest on the basis one or more scenarios *in order to make money*; not to help, not to save the people, the country, or the culture- but to make a profit. You will be strategically placed to experience first-hand what it feels like when money- when your ill-gotten gains- are suddenly worthless.
5. The World Wildlife Federation (WWF) Energy Report
http://www.worldwildlife.org/climate/energy-report.html
'...Climate change threatens the fragile balance of our planet’s ecosystems and significantly increases the risk of species extinction. A warmer world also poses great risks for society such as crop failure, water shortages and national security concerns. To avoid these devastating consequences we must slow climate change by drastically reducing the carbon pollution generated from burning fossil fuels. Embracing renewable energy, along with ambitious energy efficiency measures, is the best way to achieve the rapid pollution reductions we need while also creating millions of new jobs and ensuring America remains competitive in the global economy.
'..To help achieve this goal, World Wildlife Fund, in collaboration with energy consultants at Ecofys, prepared The Energy Report, which explores how to power the world entirely by renewable energy by the middle of this century.'
This is a large file (256 pages).
'...Climate change threatens the fragile balance of our planet’s ecosystems and significantly increases the risk of species extinction. A warmer world also poses great risks for society such as crop failure, water shortages and national security concerns. To avoid these devastating consequences we must slow climate change by drastically reducing the carbon pollution generated from burning fossil fuels. Embracing renewable energy, along with ambitious energy efficiency measures, is the best way to achieve the rapid pollution reductions we need while also creating millions of new jobs and ensuring America remains competitive in the global economy.
'..To help achieve this goal, World Wildlife Fund, in collaboration with energy consultants at Ecofys, prepared The Energy Report, which explores how to power the world entirely by renewable energy by the middle of this century.'
This is a large file (256 pages).
| the_energy_report.pdf |